The NBA season is almost two-thirds over, and teams are adjusting their depth charts and expectations after a muddle of moves at the trade and contract deadline.
While big names like Kyle Lowry and Lonzo Ball haven’t switched teams, former All-Stars Victor Oladipo and LaMarcus Aldridge now dominate their competition. Meanwhile, the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers have received reinforcements in the forward ranks by signing Andre Drummond, who made his debut with a toe injury.
Do the Lakers have enough to avoid the competition and return to the NBA Finals? Which fixed-term employment contracts are most effective? Our NBA experts answer the big questions and predict possible scenarios for the postseason.
1. What are you looking at most for the rest of the regular season?
Kevin Arnovich: A playoff tournament would make the various props in the playoffs even more interesting. Not being in the top six has real consequences, and being within reach of tenth place will extend the season for some teams that would normally have given up. The biggest problem for teams with title aspirations, however, is getting healthy in the starting lineup for the postseason.
Jerry Bembry: Miami is the favorite of the season. Five teams in NBA history have failed to make the playoffs after reaching the finals: 1998-99 Chicago Bulls (loss of Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen), 2004-05 Los Angeles Lakers (loss of Shaquille O’Neal and Gary Payton), 2014-15 Miami Heat (loss of LeBron James), 2018-19 Cleveland Cavaliers (loss of James) and 2019-20 Golden State Warriors (Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry injured, Kevin Durant lost). The relatively undefeated Heat are eighth in the East, with a 4.5 game gap between fourth and 10th place. Will Miami be able to qualify for the next playoff tournament and earn a spot in the postseason?
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Tim McMahon: The health and performance of superstars recovering from injury. Can Joel Embiid, who was on his most dominant season, return to his MVP form after returning from a bruise on his left knee? When Kevin Durant finally returns from his hamstring injury, what kind of momentum will he give Brooklyn? Will Anthony Davis (achilles/calf) and LeBron James (sprained ankle) be the same? The answers to these questions can play an important role in the final decision.
Bobby Marks: This should have been an MVP race. While I have no say in it, there are three criteria a player must meet to determine who should become MVP: overall play on the field, team success, and longevity. Based on those three factors alone, the current top 5 consists of James Harden, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic, Damian Lillard and Donovan Mitchell. While unfair, injuries to LeBron James and Joel Embiid should rule out both reasons when it comes to MVP consideration.
Royce Young: If the teams address the calendar. A number of contenders are already dealing with injuries to key players, but as the regular season winds down and the games increase, how will the teams approach the standings by the break? And will players like LeBron and Embiid insist on something like the MVP upon their return, or will it be easier for them to watch games in the postseason again? After the shortest offseason in the history of the sport, attrition will be a major issue in the league.
Can Aaron Gordon make a difference and take the Nuggets to the NBA Finals? Bart Young/NBAE via Getty Images.
2. Which trade or buyout deadline will have the most positive impact this season?
Youth: The addition of Aaron Gordon to the Nuggets is a major upgrade to the roster. Denver lacks the versatility that Jerami Grant added to the roster, and Gordon restores much of that versatility. He can defend 1 on 4, allowing Michael Malone to put together a variety of combinations based on match-ups. The Nuggets have been unable to build on their momentum and have had a wave of inconsistency for most of the season. But now they’re rebounding, and Gordon can take it to the next level.
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The NBA is back! Watch all the action from the 2020-21 season on ESPN, ABC and the ESPN app.
Wednesday, March 31
– Mavericks v Celtics, 7:30 p.m. on ESPN
– Bucks v Lakers, 10 p.m. on ESPN
All East
Arnowitz: For the regular season, Andre Drummond’s acquisition gives the Lakers a quarterback-eater that can keep them in the top 6 until LeBron and AD return. The playoffs have been inhospitable to big men in recent years, but with Utah and Denver in contention, Drummond could be a key player in a tough series.
Bembry: LaMarcus Aldridge and Blake Griffin in Brooklyn. Even with KD’s injury, the Nets were playing championship level basketball. The return of KD and the addition of Aldridge and Griffin potentially puts the Nets at the top. Potential. You have to wonder what’s left of Griffin and how Aldridge – a basketball player – fits into an offense that, at its best, is constantly moving. This is a case where Aldridge and Griffin don’t need to help the team. You should just get out of the way.
McMahon: A franchise with an MVP star in its prime should be aggressive. The Nuggets seized the opportunity to add Gordon in support of Jokic. Don’t judge Gordon on points alone, as he will be the Nuggets’ fourth offensive option. Denver needed him on defense to guard the long-term LeBrons and Kawhis that the West rival will face in the playoffs.
Stamps: Gordon’s exchange with Denver. The Nuggets made a huge jump from a Tier 2 team (first round exit) to a Tier 1 team (championship level) when they traded Gary Harris and R.J. Hampton away for Gordon. Although it cost them a first-round pick in 2025, the Nuggets’ front office looked in the mirror and realized that Jokic’s MVP season would have been wasted if they hadn’t adjusted their roster in time.
3. What percentage chance would you give the Lakers to avoid the game?
Stamps: 90%. The Lakers don’t look like a championship team, and LeBron James and Anthony Davis are on the sidelines. The reality, however, is that Dallas and San Antonio, the two teams in spots 7 and 8, have not been consistent enough this season to give you confidence that either team can continue their long string of wins.
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Youth: 99%. They stabilize and handle pretty well, and the schedule is tight but not overwhelming. It will probably be a few more weeks before the reinforcements arrive, and until then it is sufficient to stay as close to 500mm as possible.
Arnowitz: 55%. The Lakers play 11 of their next 14 games on the road (including one against the Clippers in an empty gym), with two of their three games at home against division-leader Utah. They have a four game lead in the loser’s bracket against Dallas, which has a much easier schedule. LeBron’s return is the variable here – will he be back in time to fend off the competition?
Bembry: 99.9%. The Lakers could build enough of a buffer (currently fourth in the West, five games out of a possible scenario) to afford a few weeks without LeBron and Davis. The addition of Drummond should help keep the Lakers afloat. If the Lakers get close to that point, expect James to come back. James’ injury could help the Lakers in the long run: Expect him to be well equipped for another title run.
McMahon: Let’s start with 75%. It would still be a pretty steep drop, but it’s certainly not out of the realm of possibility given the Lakers’ struggles during AD and LeBron’s absence. But the Mavs, who are seventh in the West standings, haven’t made playing out the playoff race their top priority. Dallas has put Luka Doncic and/or Kristaps Porzingis on one side of a back-to-back – and there are eight more back-to-backs on the Mavs’ schedule.
4. What part of the game would you most like to see?
McMahon: Sign me up for all the Steph vs Luca matches I can get. The 6th. In February, I was at American Airlines Center for perhaps the most entertaining game of the season, when Stephen Curry and Doncic combined for 99 points in a 134-132 victory over the Mavs. The Warriors and Mavs may not be real contenders at this point, but Golden State could be a problem in the first round if healthy.
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Stamps: Luca versus Steph in the Western Conference. I really think Sacramento will catch Golden State in the finals, but the highlight of the tournament would be a game with two All-NBA guards as winners or guests.
Youth: The run against the Celtics would have been a pretty spectacular game within the contest. Two heavyweights from the Eastern Conference both looking to improve on a disappointing season and become a dangerous playoff team. But you have to go home with the shame of ending a disappointing season without a win. It’s probably a game with the majority at stake.
Arnowitz: Warriors vs Lakers. This generation of the Lakers has never played an away game. The scripted showdown between LeBron and Steph will be very dramatic.
Bembry: Boston versus Miami. Prior to the season, any reasonable person would have ranked the Celtics and Heat among the top 10 teams in the league. Boston’s combination of Jalen Brown and Jason Tatum represented the future of the NBA, and the Heat made an incredible run to the Finals. No one could have imagined that the two teams would be within seven or eight points in the East.
5. Has your NBA Finals prediction changed?
Bembry: I had the Lakers against the Sixers, but now I’m taking the Nets against the Lakers. Even when the Nets got Harden, I had my doubts that the deal would work. It was hard to imagine Harden, Kyrie Irving and Durant successfully sharing the ball. In the few moments they played together, the trio blossomed. The addition of Aldridge and Griffin is just the icing on the cake. For the Lakers, I see Anthony Davis’ injury as a bigger problem than LeBron’s. If both return healthy and rested, the Lakers will be back in the Finals.
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Who is in first place in the latest NBA basketball power index? Go to review
McMahon: I’m not ready to give up on my prediction of a Lakers repeat, although of course that would require their superstars to be healthy and playing at their usual Hall of Fame level. But I’m not betting on the Bucks anymore. Brooklyn became the East’s favorite once Harden’s flight from Houston landed.
Stamps: I have no reason to change my opinion of the Lakers because of the Nets. For example, the Nets are a better basketball team now than when the season started in December. In the past three months, Brooklyn has added an MVP candidate with Harden and improved their depth with Aldridge and Griffin. Even though they are dealing with a lot of injuries, the Lakers have a championship pedigree and I wouldn’t be opposed to LeBron and Davis making the playoffs.
Youth: I’m fine with the Lakers in the West. But the Nets overreacted and turned into a swamp monster. Sure, there are some health issues surrounding Durant, and there is curiosity about chemistry and compliance, but talent stacked on talent tends to win, and the Nets have all of that. I’ll take it.
Arnowitz: I haven’t made any predictions in a while, because in 30 years of shopping, I’ve never picked a fast line. I believe it was Nassim Nicholas Taleb who said that the more we try to eliminate chance from modern life, the more unpredictable it becomes. He probably has the Bucs in 7 minutes, not the Lakers.
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