Earlier this week, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani said that he was “remobilizing” forces in advance of an upcoming ceasefire with the Taliban. This is a clear indication that the long-delayed peace talks between the Afghan government and the insurgents will soon be underway. The upcoming ceasefire is part of the US-Afghan bilateral security agreement (BSA), which was ratified by the US Congress in December. The BSA stipulates that the Afghan government must “remove” all foreign forces by the end of this year, and that the process of “remobilizing” forces will begin within 30 days of the BSA’s ratification.
The Afghan president said today the country is re-mobilizing forces in the south as it prepares to take on a resurgent Taliban in the months ahead. Hamid Karzai says he is taking the step in the wake of a recent surge of attacks in the south and other parts of the country. He says every part of the country is under threat. He said the situation is so serious that he is considering calling up the entire army to stem the violence.
The Afghan president, Ashraf Ghani, said that he would deploy troops in districts where there is fighting and call up 10,000 volunteers to help. He did not specify where the volunteers would come from, or what their role would be. The president said some of the reinforcements would come from the National Guard, the army and police. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-35742066. Read more about afghanistan capital and let us know what you think.
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In June, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani visited the White House. Credit… The New York Times’ Pete Marovich
Several of his close political allies have either gone to exile or surrendered to Taliban (Taliban) without a struggle. His army has almost disintegrated, and the warlords he relied on have either proven ineffective or are negotiating for their lives.
Afghanistan’s president, Ashraf Ghani, is under greater pressure than ever to resign, and it’s not only from Taliban (Taliban). His sphere of influence is dwindling by the day. He is in charge of the capital, Kabul, as well as two other cities in the north and east, as well as certain areas in the interior.
Mr. Ghani, on the other hand, is clinging to power with tenacity.
Mr. Ghani vowed to “avoid future instability” in a short taped address shown early Saturday afternoon, but he did not quit. Mr. Ghani said he had started “extensive discussions at home and abroad” and that the “results” will be revealed shortly after Taliban fighters seized Pul-i-Alam, another province seat just 40 miles from Kabul. He said that remobilizing the Afghan defense forces was a top priority.
In an effort to mobilize pro-government troops, he traveled to one of his loyalist redoubts, the northern city of Mazar-i-Sharif, on Wednesday. Officials said he talked with Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III by phone on Thursday. He was reportedly heading a national security meeting at the Kabul presidential palace on Friday.
The president of Afghanistan seems to have few choices. He has little support at home or among his previous international supporters. Demonstrations in favor of his troops dissipated soon.
Thousands of his troops are surrendering, concluding that Mr. Ghani isn’t “worth fighting for,” as former finance minister Omar Zakhilwal tweeted on Friday.
Far from implying resignation, the president has simply said that if the Taliban agree to elections, he would not seek for re-election. Their combat devastation seems to have rendered the proposition moot. Mr. Ghani and his advisors have spoken little as his nation crumbles and province capitals fall, at times even refusing to recognize the defeats.
Even Mr. Ghani’s large security force, which is believed to number in the thousands, presents a danger. Many of them are from Taliban-controlled areas.
It is a risky business to lead Afghanistan. According to Boston University anthropologist Thomas Barfield, most Afghan kings have been murdered or died in exile for more than a century.
Even if Mr. Ghani is ousted by the Taliban, as appears more probable, he may claim a unique distinction. “This will be the first time a foreign power has backed an insurgency that has thrown a Kabul administration from power,” Mr. Barfield added.
When the Taliban took power in 1996, one former king ended himself hanging from a lamppost in downtown Kabul, while the other escaped hundreds of miles north to lead a postage-stamp rump state for five years.
Mr. Ghani shows no indications of being swayed by the harsh lessons of the past, not by the uncertain present or the dreadful future.
Torek Farhadi, a former Afghan presidential advisor, said, “He’s hunkering in.” “He refuses to acknowledge the truth. The information is sent via a filter to him.”
“Trusted lieutenants submitted only this morning,” Mr. Farhadi said, alluding to the recent capitulations of governors chosen by Mr. Ghani in the provinces of Ghazni and Logar.
Mr. Farhadi said, “He is in danger from his own bodyguards.” “This is the way things work in Afghanistan. This is how any leader’s last days are.”
Khalid Payenda, Mr. Ghazni’s young finance minister, left the country a few days ago.
Mr. Ghani’s reluctance to transfer power or listen to people more competent than himself, particularly on military issues, irritated his fellow citizens in the past, but they are now proving deadly to the Afghan state.
Tamim Asey, a former deputy defense minister, described him as “isolated, confused, and profoundly distrustful of everyone.” “He has no idea how to undo this.”
“I would suggest that Kabul may become a blood bath very soon,” Mr. Asey warned unless a solution can be found.
The Taliban have said that until Mr. Ghani is removed from power, the violence would continue. Mr. Ghani has “demonized the Taliban time and time again, saying, ‘You are the stooges of the Pakistanis,’” according to Mr. Farhadi, as the “polarizing figure.” In response, the Taliban see him as an American “stooge.”
Analysts blame Mr. Ghani, a former World Bank anthropologist and published author with an excessive trust in his own intelligence, for much of the present catastrophe.
The Americans attempted to build republican institutions on Afghan soil, but these turned out to be a sham. Mr. Ghani, on the other hand, individualized power to catastrophic effect.
“He needed the militias in the north and west,” he said, but he despised their commanders. Ismail Khan, a senior militia commander in the western city of Herat, surrendered to the Taliban on Friday.
Mr. Ghani “did not seek guidance from anybody,” according to Boston University’s Mr. Barfield. “It could have been salvaged if he had ceded authority to the military. It’s now a matter of reality kicking in.”
On Friday, items belonging to an Afghan family fleeing the country were sold on the street in Kabul, the capital. Credit… The New York Times’ Jim Huylebroek
On Saturday, Afghans awoke to a terrifyingly unclear future, a day after three key cities were reported to have fallen to the Taliban, fueling fears that Afghanistan was teetering on the brink of collapse and dictatorship amid an increasing humanitarian catastrophe.
On Friday morning, the Taliban took control of Lashkar Gah, the capital of Helmand Province, only hours after seizing Herat, a cultural center in the west, and Kandahar, Afghanistan’s second-largest city. They have destabilized city after city this week, leaving just three major metropolitan centers in the control of the government, including Kabul, the capital.
As the rebels prepare to attack Kabul, a painful truth has emerged: the two-decade American-led attempt to transform Afghanistan’s military into a capable combat force has failed miserably. Despite the fact that the US has spent more than $83 billion on weapons, equipment, and training for the security forces over the last 20 years, they are collapsing.
Soldiers and police units throughout the nation have collapsed due to a lack of ammunition and hunger. Demoralized troops and police officers have long held grudges against the Afghan government, particularly the beleaguered president, Ashraf Ghani, who is clinging to power while being more isolated than ever.
The human toll of the conflict is resonating throughout Afghanistan, with the Taliban’s ruthless military assault sparking a huge exodus. Many Afghans worry that fundamentalist control will return. During the Taliban’s reign from 1996 to 2001, women and girls were prohibited from working or attending school. A civil war reminiscent of the 1990s, with intense combat between ethnically affiliated militias, is another unsettling possibility.
Since the end of May, at least a quarter of a million Afghans have been forced to leave their homes, with 80 percent of them being women and children, according to the United Nations refugee agency. The violence is further aggravating already severe food shortages.
The agency’s spokesperson, Shabia Mantoo, told reporters in Geneva on Friday that “the most vulnerable are paying for what’s going on on the ground.” Since the beginning of the year, more than 400,000 individuals have been displaced from their homes, she said. According to the United Nations Food Program, two million youngsters are currently in need of nutritional assistance.
According to American sources, the Biden administration is preparing for the Afghan government to fall apart within the next month as the Taliban close in on Kabul, their ultimate goal. According to the Pentagon, the rebels are attempting to isolate the capital by seizing border crossings, roads, and revenue lines as they march throughout the nation.
The government has urged security personnel to demonstrate “leadership” and “will” in defending Kabul. However, many US officials are becoming more skeptical that Afghan troops would band together to defend the city.
The Pentagon is sending 3,000 Marines and soldiers to Afghanistan, as well as another 4,000 troops, to evacuate the majority of the American Embassy and American residents in Kabul.
It’s a clear indication not just that the nation is on the verge of collapse, but also that the US is completely committed to ending its longest war, with no intention of rescuing the Afghan military.
Several of the most important
cities taken over by
the Taliban
Districts under Taliban rule
Districts that are contested
Controlled by the government
Some of the most important
cities taken over by
the Taliban
Districts under Taliban rule
Districts that are contested
Controlled by the government
Some of the
cities of importance
Taliban have taken control of the area
Districts under Taliban rule
Districts that are contested
Controlled by the government
At a meeting in Tianjin last month, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, left, co-founder of the Taliban, met with Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister. Credit… Associated Press/Li Ran/Xinhua
In Asia, the possibility of a Taliban takeover and the US military departure from Afghanistan have been met with a mixture of resignation and dread. However, a major cause of Asian concern is China, a massive power that would normally welcome a reduced American presence.
While China often accuses the US for behaving as a global aggressor, it has cautioned that a premature US departure might cause regional instability. An assault on a bus transporting Chinese employees in Pakistan last month, which killed nine people, has been blamed on attackers operating from Afghanistan.
China, which shares a short border with Afghanistan, has voiced concern that Uyghur radicals from its far western Xinjiang province might find refuge in Afghanistan under a resurgent Taliban. The terrorist organization currently controls more than half of Afghanistan’s territory and is poised to reclaim power in Kabul, the capital, in the near future.
Ian Bremmer, head of the Eurasia Group, a political risk consulting company, stated, “The Chinese are really very worried.” “They wanted us to stay,” says the narrator.
Despite this, China recently expressed public support for the Taliban. Late this month, China’s Foreign Ministry conducted two days of discussions with a group that included Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, one of the Taliban’s founders.
According to a statement from China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Foreign Minister Wang Yi termed the Taliban “a key military and political force,” but encouraged the movement’s leaders to “hold aloft the flag of peace negotiations.”
Mr. Wang also got a public promise from the organization that fighters would not be able to use Afghan land as a base for operations within China.
Despite two decades of American-led involvement, China’s stance shows a recognition of the Taliban’s increasing authority in Afghanistan.
Most Asian countries had already factored in a Taliban triumph, according to Susan L. Shirk, director of the University of California, San Diego’s 21st Century China Center. “Because it’s been a prolonged process, not a shock,” she said.
Even in the face of increased security concerns, Mr. Bremmer believes Chinese officials would depict the US withdrawal from Afghanistan as a humiliating retreat, particularly those who have embraced the aggressive “wolf-warrior diplomacy” approach.
He said, “There is no doubt that there are wolf fighters in China who want America to fall.”
In early 2016, US Army troops supervised the training of the Afghan National Army’s 215th Corps in Camp Bastion in Helmand Province, Afghanistan. Credit… The New York Times’ Adam Ferguson
While Afghanistan’s future appears to be becoming increasingly uncertain, one thing is becoming abundantly clear: the United States’ 20-year effort to rebuild Afghanistan’s military into a robust and independent fighting force has failed, and that failure is now being played out in real time as the country falls under Taliban control.
The Afghan military’s collapse was initially seen months ago, with a series of defeats that began even before President Biden’s declaration that the US would leave by September 11.
It started with isolated outposts in remote regions, when Taliban militants encircled famished and ammunition-depleted military and police units, promising safe passage if they surrendered and left their equipment behind, gradually handing the insurgents control of highways, then whole districts. As positions fell apart, the most common criticism was that there was no air assistance or that supplies and food had run out.
But even before then, the Afghan security forces’ structural vulnerabilities were evident: on paper, they numbered about 300,000 personnel, but in recent days, they have numbered roughly one-sixth of that, according to US officials. These flaws may be linked to a slew of problems stemming from the West’s determination on creating a fully modern military, along with all the logistical and supply challenges that entails, which has proven unsustainable without the US and its NATO allies.
Soldiers and police officers have voiced growing dissatisfaction with the Afghan government. Officials often turned a blind eye to what was going on, knowing well well that the Afghan forces’ true personnel count was much lower than what was on the books, which was distorted by corruption and secrecy that they silently tolerated.
And, when the US announced its departure, the Taliban gained momentum, reinforcing the notion that fighting in the security forces — fighting for President Ashraf Ghani’s administration — was not worth dying for. Soldiers and police officers recounted times of anguish and desertion in interview after interview.
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