One. In November Manchester United finished in 15th place. A place in the Premier League after losing three of their first six games. At the same time, they did their best in the Champions League, after already beating PSG and RB Leipzig. According to Five ThirtyEight, their chances of winning the Premier League were only 2 percent and their chances of reaching the knockout stages of the Champions League were 93 percent.
Just over two months later, United is level on points with Liverpool at the top of the Premier League stand…. and are preparing to play in the Europa League after being eliminated from the Champions League.
– ESPN FC Daily diet with ESPN+ (US only)
The football season is exceptionally long, and intrigues can be many. This is of course double for a pandemic season with a compressed calendar. Let’s take a look at some recent negative developments – one in particular – and determine whether these developments are worrying or just a turn in the process.
This is the panic index and we assess them on a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 = freezing cold and 5 = oh no.
Let’s go, let’s go, let’s go, let’s go, let’s go.
Three games, one goal, one point. Is there cause for panic in Liverpool?
I hope I’m wrong, because the big title game is going to be a lot of fun, booooooo…. Looks like Liverpool wins the Premier League by 12 points, right? ….
– Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) 19 December 2020
Sometimes plot twists happen quickly. Just six days before Christmas, the Premier League was in first place. Liverpool has constantly had to deal with injuries and team changes throughout the season. After the 7-0 defeat at Crystal Palace, he is in first place, five points for second place Everton, six for Tottenham Hotspur (whom he defeated three days earlier), eight for the two Manchester-clubs and nine for Chelsea. They should have won easily against West Bromwich Albion and Newcastle United. They could be almost 10 points higher by the new year…..
…not so much. Against the back of West Brom and the new coach Sam Allardyce had Liverpool 78% possession, tried 17 shots in the West Brom five, generated 1.7 xG in 0.7 … And sign, 1-1.
Against Newcastle: 73% possession, 11 shots at eight, 1.4 xG at 0.9 … 0-0.
Against Southampton: 67% possession, 17 shots on seven, 1.8 xG at 0.4 … 0-1.
Three matches, total ball dominance, a +25 shot differential and a point for the ball. This is the 17th time the holiday season has changed the Premier League race. For the first time this season we made it run on its own.
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Gab Marcotti believes that Liverpool’s injuries and lack of rotation are now catching up.
Liverpool’s biggest problem right now? You get Maine City. The opponents throw all possible defenders into the box, force them into long failed possessions and try to strike back.
Liverpool, shooting statistics, last three seasons:
2018-19: 15.1 shots per match, 0.14 xG/Kick, 17% shots with 3+ defenders between kicker and goal, 28% with 0-1 defenders
2019-20: 15.6 shots per match, 0.13 xG/Kick, 18% shots with 3+ defenders between kicker and goal, 24% with 0-1 defenders
2020-21 : 15.4 shots per match, 0.14 xG/shootout, 19% shots by 3+ defenders between kicker and goal, 17% shots by 0-1 defenders
last 3 matches: 15.0 shots per match, 0.11 xG/shootout, 33% shots by more than 3 defenders between kicker and goal, 13% shots by 0-1 defenders.
It’s not necessarily a new approach, especially from the lower teams (or, as in the case of Southampton, the underdogs at the top), but injuries have drained Liverpool’s creative energy in a number of ways. On one side of the field, striker Diogo Jota has been the key to creativity this season, but he has missed the last seven games due to a knee bend. Since his departure from Wolverhampton, he has played as a midfielder and on both wings, scoring nine goals and creating 11 chances in 17 games.
When Jota plays, Liverpool has on average more goals and more xGs/shots, with fewer shots and less possession. And although midfielder Thiago, one of the best in the world, finally returned to the lineup after a long knee injury in the defeat to Southampton, he only managed to play 242 minutes in the championship match.
Fault! The file name is not specified. Liverpool’s sudden fall into shape came at the worst possible moment, with injuries and the constant patching of cracks they caught up with as Man City got better and better. OTHER PERSONS/BENZOLE/AFP via Getty Images
On the other side of the field several injuries had their consequences, both direct and indirect. The loss of central defender Virgil van Dijk due to a torn cruciate ligament caused the opponents to take more shots, which is normal: In 2018-19 and 2019-20, opponents average 0.120 xG per shot and 0.141 since the injury. Jurgen Klopp put midfielder Fabinho back on the defensive, which worked well, but when Joe Gomez was also sent away because of a torn Achilles tendon, Klopp was forced to dig deeper into the breach. Young defenders Nathaniel Phillips and Rhys Williams were added to the rotation, while Klopp added another midfielder, Jordan Henderson, to the back line against Southampton.
The move went pretty well: Southampton scored early and that’s it. But if this becomes a more permanent change for the rest of the season, it means that Klopp has not only lost his two best center-backs due to an injury, but also his two best midfielders due to position changes.
2 Connected
It’s a difficult time for Liverpool, who certainly wasn’t planning to spend a lot of money on another central defender in the 2020-21 season. Although it is logical that they are trying to get into the running for the Bayern Munich star defender David Alaba, it is not likely that the Austrian will make any movement internationally until the summer. They are linked to defenders like Merich Demiral Juve, and if the right decision is made in January, it makes sense to jump on them. But if the prices are too high and there is less money than normal in this coronavirus year, at least it makes sense to go into a storm.
First of all, it’s only been three games since they seem to be able to escape from the league. Van Dijk and Gomez were taken away from them for a while and Klopp’s decisions were very effective. Secondly, these three gloomy sets again resulted in a difference of +2.9 xG. Although the ideas sometimes run out, there is also a certain amount of bad luck. They still have the best points difference and the second best xG differential this season, and they are still in the standings.
PANIC RANKING (1-5): 3 – 2 in terms of personnel, because they can more or less mix up their occupations, but 4 in terms of a serious competitor on the horizon.
Should the Premier League panic after taking over Man City?
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According to Shaka Hislop, the defence of Man United and Liverpool is much more worrying than that of Man City at the moment.
At the same time, if the Reds drop out, Manchester United isn’t even the scariest team in Manchester right now. Of course the Red Devils took 29 points in their last 11 league games and scored the most goals in the league during that time. But they took advantage of the kind of tight games that brought Liverpool luck last season: seven of those 11 games ended 0-1, and of those seven they collected an unbearable 17 points.
The city, on the other hand, seems on the verge of reaching its full potential. Of course, they are always confronted with the effects of the coronavirus, which can cause them to falter, and they are always subject to occasional/unacceptable draws (1-1 against West Brom on 15 December, 1-1 against West Ham on 24 October). Но их поражение 21 ноября от Тоттенхэм Хотспур Хотспур со счетом 2:0 стало единственным поражением в любом соревновании с сентября.
Несмотря на неровное начало, диференциал xG Сити (+1.(05) в настоящее время является лучшим; за последние два месяца они среднем вторые величине броски лиге владение получили низкие xG на броск, в то время как и вторые величине броски на владение они низкие xG бросок. Они, как всегда, глотают переходные попытки и мячом. И даже с ограниченным составом, они просто собрали воедино, пожалуй, самое полное выступление в сезоне за выходные, доминируя в Челси 3-1. И за этим последовала солидная победа 2:0 над Манчестер Юнайтед в полуфинале Кубка Лиги.
Sky Blues попрежнему отстают от Ливерпуля и Юнайтед четыре очка, но рейтинги FiveThirtyEight, которые всегда любили Сити, теперь понастоящему любят Сити: клубные них 69% шансов выиграть лигу, на что 27% выше, чем всего две недели назад.
That – no injuries, no reshuffled team, no overloaded defense – could be Liverpool’s biggest problem in the coming months, and I’m not sure there’s another transfer window that could stop that tide.
PANIC ASSESSMENT : 5… We’ll see if we can’t solve COWID-19’s problems. But if they don’t, the city can move forward, especially with a list of ultra-light league games ahead. (They will play in Brighton, Crystal Palace, Aston Villa, West Brom and Sheffield United until the end of January).
Let’s take a look at the other big clubs that are fighting right now.
Should Chelsea PSG panic after losing tight games?
It is therefore not surprising that the results of close games are not entirely random: In general, the better you do it, the more likely you are to do it better in tight spaces. However, there is always a certain degree of randomness, and the further away you go from the trend line, the more you claim that you are going backwards – or forwards – to the average.
– Winners: Pochettino’s early days as MTP director
You want to see the two best candidates for promotion in this category?
This year, PSG played eight games with a score of 0-1 in Ligue 1, and ten other games with a score of 0-1. They have one victory, four losses and three draws in their next eight games, for a total of six points, giving them a perfect 30 points from the last ten games. They have won seven of the last eight French titles and are a little-known Ligue 1 runners-up behind a burning Lyon. Chelsea, who barely survived the aforementioned defeat by the City, is ninth in the Premier League and closes in on 15th-placed Newcastle United and the league leaders.
The fact that PSG fired Thomas Tuchel in December and that Chelsea is apparently considering doing the same with Frank Lampard makes sense – both did not live up to expectations and the money was spent on building their respective teams. But with or without a change of course, both teams are likely to see their form improve, if only because they will convert a few draws into victories and heavy defeats in depots.
2… Eventually it will work for both clubs. We’ll see if Chelsea gets better with or without Lampard.
Does Real Madrid have to panic because they can’t get quality pictures?
Technically Real Madrid is doing well at the moment. The Blanco’s are second in La Liga, and while the first placed Atletico de Madrid is currently in the middle of a riot – Diego Simeone’s side has 96 points and no longer has to worry about the upcoming Copa del Rey – they are only third in the xG and could theoretically settle at some point. If that happens, Real will attract them.
Although it would certainly be nice if they could make more good moves (and not let their opponents do the same). I mean, it was late.
Editor’s comments : The above data for the last two months
In American football there are two major categories of fouls: Efficiency and explosiveness. With efficiency, you control the ball, you avoid falling in the second or third and long, etc. With explosiveness you make great games and create easy points.
In this style, Real Madrid allows many more great games than it does. За последние два месяца они занимают 14-е место по хГ на один выстрел 18-е место по хГ на один выстрел. Они уязвимы для контратак обычное для команд владения), но не получают никакой выгоды от какого-либо серьезного давления или создания собственных забить гол. За сезон они создают а всего 49,6 восстановления мяча на 90 (14-е в лиге), 7,2 в атаке 3-е (9-е), а также разрешают 10,7 паса за одно защитное действие (8-е).
Это, конечно, довольно распространенное для стареющей команды; девять игроков уже записали минимум 1000 минут в лиге, а четверо – 31 или старше, включая нападающего Карима Бензему (33) и полузащитников Луку Модрика (35) и Тони Крооса (31). Они могут отчаянно использовать вливание энергии, если планируют оставаться достаточно близко лошади то, чтобы в какой-момент момент сделать заряд.
ПАНИЧЕСКАЯ ПАНИЧЕСКАЯ : 3… В той степени, в возраст является одной из их проблем, эта проблема не улучшится до межсезонья.
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Але Морено взвешивает, стоит ли Реалу Реалу Мадриду новый контракт Серхио Рамосу или забрать Давида из мюнхенской Баварии.
Должна ли Шпоры паниковать по достаточного количества уколов ?
Абсолютная радость наблюдать за тем, как связь между Гарри Кейном Тоттенхэмом Хотспуром и Мином усилилась в этом сезоне. Дуэт объединил объединил 22 гола и 16 передач в игре лиги, и 13 передач перешли другу – девять из Кейна в Сына, четыре из Сына в Кейна. Остальная команда: семь голов и восемь восемь в 16 матчах. Пристрастия Хосе Моуриньо к хорошо хорошо отразились на Соне и Кейне, но если Шпоры забивают быстрых рывках через контратакам, не самом деле никакого плана Б.
Это начало проявляться в статистике стрельбы.
Заметка редактора : Приведенные выше данные за последние два месяца.
Шпоры обнаружили явное преимущество xG в Соне и Кейне: они забили 22 гола выстрелах стоимостью всего 15,0 xG. Но количество выстрелов становится проблемой. За последние два месяца шпоры занимают 16-е место по количеству выстрелов за хранение и 18-е место по количеству выстрелов, разрешенных хранение.
Шпоры Моуриньо достаточно хорошо организованы в обороне, что позволяет делать выстрелы самого качества, и в сочетании с тем, что у них Хьюго Ллорис в кипера, они позволили, несмотря качестве количество, забить второй по счету гол в сезоне Манчестер Сити. Но в то время как опора началась на Сына и Кейна началась потенциал как произойдет, если один из них пострадает (как в прошлом году) ? они медленно превращаются в Они просто не генерируют достаточно шансов. Иметь отличный отличный план А – это замечательно но у тебя должно быть больше планов !
В то время как внесезонные приобретения оборонительного полузащитника Пьера_Эмиля Хойбьерга и защитников Серхио Регуйлона и Мэтта помогли с обороны и исполнением Карлос, наступательные пикапы – мадридский Реал Гарет Бейл, Бенфика и глубиной – Доэрти с травмами и для всего Моуриньо, объединив всего 176 минут Винисиус перчаткой, доверия боролись и пять созданных моментов. Атакующий полузащитник Делли, повидимому, также потерял доверие Моуриньо, сыграв всего 74 минуты лиги.
ПАНИЧЕСКАЯ ПАНИЧЕСКАЯ : 4 — В большинстве трансферных слухов есть шпоры, гоняющиеся за другим центральным защитником, но не хуже, чем могут быть Kane-to-Son и Son-to-Kane, им нужно планов, если они хотят в больше.
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