Fantasy hockey – Forecaster for the week of March 15-21

When does splitting home and away games become a fantasy for a team? It’s hard to get attached to that kind of thing when those splits aren’t usually super predictable.

But when division becomes ridiculous, it becomes worthy of our attention. Even if we are unable to find the major gaps, we can keep them in mind when designing training.

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Washington Capitals play power (45.2% home conversion rate, 8.8% away): First place in the National League and 30. The ranking in the national championship is a pretty big deal. This division is evident with John Carlson, who has 14 points and six power play points at home, but only eight points and one power play point on the road. You probably wouldn’t bench Carlson just because the Caps have a road trip, but the separation of the teams is enough to look at the home schedule when deciding whether to start Jakub Vrana or T.J. Oshie for this week.

St. Louis Blues Offense (2.67 goals per game at home, 3.57 goals per game away): The mix of playing at home and ranking second in the NHL in points shows two sides to this Blues team: on the road they are a team that won the Stanley Cup two seasons ago, and at home they are 28th in the league in points. Brayden Schenn suffers from that homesickness when it comes to the power play. All of his five points this season have come on the road. There’s definitely something to keep an eye on this week when the Blues are on the road….. like next week! The team plays four games on the road. Make sure all the points of attack are in your direction. In the future, fantasy players like Jordan Kirow and Mike Hoffman could become options in the lineup when the Blues play on the road.

DefensePittsburgh Penguins (2.54 goals per game at home, 3.54 goals per game away): This split is crucial for Tristan Jarry, who is 8-2-0 at home with a .925 save percentage, but 3-5-1 on the road with an .864 save percentage. So, during the week, like next week, Jarry starts fantastic. The Pens still have five games to play, but two of the tough games against the Boston Bruins are at home, and one of the three remaining games against the New Jersey Devils is also in Pittsburgh.

2 Connected

DefenseEdmonton Oilers (3.29 goals per game at home, 2.45 goals per game away): The Oilers are 26th in the league in goals scored at home and third on the road. All this schism was created by one man: Mike Smith. One wonders if the 38-year-old has anything against playing at Rogers Place. On the road, Smith has a perfect 5-0-0 record with a 1.00 goals-against average and a .967 save percentage. Regardless of Smith’s magic on the road, this is the only time he should be in a fantasy lineup. At home, his average opposing goal is a miserable 3.14. Only Smith, by the way, Mikko Koskinen doesn’t have a big gap to his home.

Fantasy forecast: March 15-21

This is a rare week where you have to think twice about being the best skater in fantasy. Unless you play in a minor league, you’ll probably still start with Austin Matthews and his 3.5 fantasy points per game (FPPG), but with other teams playing up to five, you’ll probably have better options. The Leafs, Columbus Blue Jackets and Ottawa Senators only play twice next week. The Leafs have more stringent requirements, but you can probably bench any jack or touch panel on your list.

Control	Gms	nuts	Mo 3/15	Di 3/16	see 3/17	Do 3/18	Fri 3/19	Sa 3/20	Sun 3/21
	3	3 4	OFF	@COL 2	OFF	ARI 3 3	OFF	ARI 3 3	OFF
	3	6 6	OFF	@MIN 2 7	OFF	@ANA 8 8	OFF	@ANA 8 8	OFF
	4	7 9	@ PIT 6 8	@ PIT 6 8	OFF	@BUF 9 10	OFF	@BUF 9 10	OFF
	4	5	WSH 3	@NJ 4 9	OFF	BOS 3	OFF	BOS 3	OFF
	4	6 7	EDM 6 6	OFF	EDM 6 6	OFF	@ TOR 5 9	@ TOR 5 9	OFF
	3	8 7	OFF	@DET 10 10	OFF	CLS 10 8	OFF	CLS 10 8	OFF
	3	4 2	@ FLA 10 3	OFF	OFF	@TB 2	OFF	@TB 2	OFF
	3	5 7	OFF	ANA 9 10	OFF	MIN 3 9	OFF	MIN 3 9	OFF
	2	2	OFF	OFF	OFF	@CAR 2	OFF	@CAR 2	OFF
	4	6 8	OFF	TB 6	OFF	@DET 8 10	OFF	@DET 8 10	NC 7 8
	3	3	OFF	AUTOMOBILE	OFF	DAL 3	OFF	DAL 3	OFF
	4	6 5	@CGY 5 5	OFF	@CGY 5 5	WPG 7 3	OFF	WPG 7 3	OFF
	4	5 5	CHI 8 2	OFF	OFF	NC 5 5	OFF	NC 5 5	@TB 3
	4	6 6	STL 8 8	OFF	STL 8 8	OFF	VGS 3	OFF	VGS 3
	3	4 6	OFF	ARI 5 9	OFF	@COL 3 7	OFF	@COL 3 7	OFF
	4	8 5	@ WPG 9 3	OFF	@ WPG 9 3	OFF	FROM 8 5	FROM 8 5	OFF
	4	4 6	@TB 3	OFF	OFF	@ FLA 6 6	OFF	@ FLA 6 6	@DAL 2 4
	4	5	OFF	BUF 2 7	OFF	PIT 2	OFF	PIT 2	@ PIT 2
	3	7 6	OFF	@WSH 9 4	OFF	PHI 9 8	OFF	PHI 9 8	OFF
	4	6 6	PHI 5 8	OFF	PHI 5 8	OFF	@WSH 4 4	@WSH 4 4	OFF
	2	5 4	FROM 7 6	OFF	FROM 7 6	OFF	OFF	OFF	OFF
	4	4 6	@NYR 3 7	OFF	@NYR 3 7	@NYI 2 3	OFF	@NYI 2 3	OFF
	5	8 8	BOS 3 5	BOS 3 5	OFF	@NJ 10 10	OFF	@NJ 10 10	NJ 10 10
	4	5 5	@VGS 2	OFF	@VGS 2	OFF	STL 7 7	STL 7 7	OFF
	4	5 5	@LA 3 3	OFF	@LA 3 3	OFF	@SJ 4 4	@SJ 4 4	OFF
	5	10 10	NC 10 10	@DAL 6 10	OFF	CHI 10 9	OFF	CHI 10 9	FLA 10 10
	2	2 5	OFF	OFF	OFF	OFF	CGI 2 7	CGI 2 7	OFF
	4	6 4	@OTT 4 4	OFF	@OTT 4 4	OFF	@MTL 5 2	@MTL 5 2	OFF
	4	9 7	SJ 10 9	OFF	SJ 10 9	OFF	@LA 10 8	OFF	@LA 10 8
	4	7 6	@BUF 10 8	NEW YORK 6 3	OFF	OFF	NEW YORK 7 7	NEW YORK 7 7	OFF
	4	8 4	MTL 8 2	OFF	MTL 8 2	@EDM 9 3	OFF	@EDM 9 3	OFF

For those who are not familiar with the synoptic table, here is some explanation: O (Offense), left behind each matchup, and D (Defense), right, matchup grades are based on a scale of 1 (poor matchup) to 10 (excellent matchup) and are calculated using a formula that evaluates the team’s season statistics, home and away performance based on the location of the match, and opponent grades in those categories. The Rankings column shows the cumulative rankings from 1 to 10 games of the week for both offense (O) and defense (D).

Ordering instructions

Tampa Bay Lightning: The Bolts’ success has limited the utility of their five-game fantasy schedule next week. The recent successes of Ondrej Palat and Anthony Cirelli nearly closed the window of opportunity to add them from the waiver wire. Yanni Gourde and Alex Killorn are available in great numbers and are currently tied with Steven Stamkos in scoring. Both have put up 1.4 FPPG this season, which certainly helps in a week with five games. Austin Matthews’ two games (3.5 FPPG) match up exactly with Gourde and Killorn’s projection (seven fantasy points). Ryan McDonagh would be another place to look on the wire, as his 1.9 FPPG ranks 22nd among defensemen, but he is available in 35% of leagues.

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Pittsburgh Penguins: Additionally, the Penguins, who play a five-game week, have several other options that are likely free agents. Kasperi Kapanen should be your first choice, as he has adapted well to Evgeni Malkin lately. In fact, 43% of this season’s total production took place in March. More and more people have mastered Brandon Tanev’s production, but he’s still available in 58% of leagues. Tanev is coming off a ridiculous 1.9 FPPG on the season and 2.6 FPPG in the last two weeks. It’s also interesting to note that three of the five games are at home, where Tristan Jarry scores all of his points: 43.8 fantasy points at home versus -9.0 fantasy points on the road.

Vegas Golden Knights: While his first three NHL goals in the form of a hat trick is a pretty impressive feat, defenseman Dylan Coghlan’s goal didn’t come out of nowhere. He has a chance with Alex Pietrangelo, and as the leading scorer among defensemen in each of the last two AHL seasons, Coghlan has talent as well. A week with two games against the San Jose Sharks (30th in the league in goals per game) and two games against the Los Angeles Kings (both goalies are currently out) is a good week to place a bet on Coghlan. Also pay attention to the movements of the goalkeepers. As for the Kings, both of their goalies are currently out: Marc-Andre Fleury is in the COVID protocol and Robin Lehner is still injured. Oscar Dansk could be an option for deeper competition, depending on how long Fleury is out.

Player notes

Adrian Kemp, W, Los Angeles Kings: We’ve praised him this season, but Kempe remains available in 53% of ESPN leagues. If you simply predict that his success is not for you, you still have time to respond after the success has occurred. Over the last three weeks, Kemp has 3.2 GPPG in seven games.

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The Kings are coming off a 5-1 win over the Ducks, with two goals from Adrian Kempe.

Adam Henrique, C, Anaheim Ducks: Did you give up on that and sit on the couch to effectively wake up Enrique? Since returning to the Ducks’ lineup, Enrique has scored 15.1 points in seven games (2.2 FPPG). That’s closer to what I was hoping for when I mentioned him as a reserve striker before the season. Seven games is not enough to make it mandatory in all competitions, but it is close. A few more solid performances from Enrique – who lines up with Jacob Silfverberg and rookie Trevor Zegras – and he should be bought.

Timo Meyer, F, San Jose Sharks: His point total was low enough that a recent injury to his lower body could drop him in your league. Catch him! In the four games he played before getting injured, Meyer showed promise with 14.2 fantasy points. His usual cellmate, Thomas Gertl, should also be back for Meyer’s return.

Alexander Edler, D, Vancouver Canucks: Only Dougie Hamilton, Jeff Petrie and Victor Hedman have been on the field since the 26th. February scored more FPPG than Edler. What do these three have in common that is wrong with Edler? They’re not in your fantasy league. Nobler could be more noble, as it stands at 76.1%. When he’s stopping and controlling shots, Edler is one of the better fantasy players. In the 2018-19 season, he was FSU’s second-best skater behind Nikita Kucherov.

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